Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.690926 2.875767 3.073741 3.302744 3.561864 3.847805 4.189787
2025-03-02 2.407891 2.653972 2.932052 3.273562 3.687437 4.180722 4.825935
2025-03-09 2.225755 2.503950 2.829917 3.247450 3.779651 4.452944 5.401054
2025-03-16 2.099463 2.399633 2.761506 3.241097 3.878794 4.728672 6.009609
2025-03-23 2.019615 2.340975 2.738389 3.281808 4.033840 5.088686 6.794292
2025-03-30 1.916866 2.244231 2.656573 3.233520 4.056407 5.257623 7.314795
2025-04-06 1.827093 2.157192 2.579491 3.182174 4.064844 5.400581 7.815134
2025-04-13 1.734832 2.061189 2.483615 3.095644 4.010614 5.435397 8.128035
2025-04-20 1.695941 2.032514 2.475284 3.130528 4.139321 5.777500 9.091060
2025-04-27 1.670072 2.019107 2.485910 3.192031 4.313460 6.219803 10.389042
2025-05-04 1.644952 2.004890 2.493726 3.248669 4.484194 6.682692 11.905189
2025-05-11 1.595625 1.954938 2.447810 3.219424 4.507852 6.873625 12.839709
2025-05-18 1.550939 1.910374 2.408499 3.199463 4.548512 7.111100 14.025635
2025-05-25 1.507481 1.865766 2.366907 3.172987 4.574997 7.324970 15.259740
2025-06-01 1.467663 1.824628 2.328266 3.148302 4.601610 7.543259 16.637757
2025-06-08 1.435607 1.793204 2.302374 3.142279 4.661351 7.845109 18.515334
2025-06-15 1.417230 1.780539 2.303733 3.180922 4.808899 8.379794 21.779313
2025-06-22 1.378792 1.737395 2.256826 3.135085 4.787325 8.501480 23.374064
2025-06-29 1.341803 1.695214 2.209764 3.086319 4.755553 8.592832 24.941454
2025-07-06 1.298610 1.642764 2.145113 3.004076 4.649793 8.476079 25.315565
2025-07-13 1.285061 1.633476 2.146913 3.037240 4.783032 9.024301 30.360051
2025-07-20 1.277923 1.633301 2.162708 3.095683 4.975464 9.792224 38.850193
2025-07-27 1.269902 1.631431 2.175565 3.149468 5.164476 10.614639 51.282357